Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Metrics Reveal Underrated and Overrated Teams in March Madness

As the tournament approaches, I rely heavily on offensive and defensive efficiency metrics to guide my predictions. One team that catches my attention is Michigan State, who have a strong defensive efficiency ranking of ninth but rank just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency. Their upcoming matchup against Mississippi State, who is 64th in offensive efficiency, will be a key test for the Spartans.

Michigan State has excelled in allowing a low shooting percentage of 44.5%, ranking 22nd among all teams. However, they may struggle in their first round matchup against Mississippi State due to their lower offensive efficiency rating. Additionally, Michigan State enters the tournament with the lowest luck rating according to KenPom.com, which could make it difficult for them to compete at a high level throughout the tournament. Despite this, they are viewed as an underrated team entering the tournament and have an adjusted efficiency margin of 19th.

On the other hand, South Carolina is seen as somewhat overrated six seed in the tournament. The Gamecocks are considered one of the luckiest teams in the tournament and had an easy out-of-conference schedule during their regular season play. While their adjusted efficiency margin is lower than several lower-seeded teams, they are still viewed as a strong contender in their first round matchup against 11-seed Oregon due to their regular season record of 26-7.