According to VTT’s forecast, in ten years, half of the kilometers driven by passenger cars will be fully electric. The number of electric cars is expected to increase rapidly based on recent scenarios by the Finnish Technology Research Center VTT. The share of electric cars in kilometers driven has been growing faster than anticipated, with over two percent in 2022 and expected to reach half in ten years.
However, specialist researcher Marko Paakkinen believes that two government initiatives on the savings list could be destructive to this development. These measures, though saving a little, could cause the loss of a lot in terms of inhibiting the growth of electric cars.
The scenarios predicted by VTT are based on measures introduced to reduce traffic emissions, such as promoting the use of renewable fuels. The electrification of vehicles has been promoted through subsidies and increasing fossil fuel prices, but these are no longer included in the government’s current plans.
Paakkinen highlights two crucial forms of support that are now at stake, including the tax advantage for company electric cars and the subsidy for charging points in housing associations. These measures have been effective in increasing the number of electric cars and aiding emission reduction.
However, uncertainties in the market, such as interest rate increases and household financial situations, could impact the development of electric cars. Paakkinen remains optimistic that the market will rebound, especially as European manufacturers offer more affordable options. He also notes that heavy vehicles still rely on fossil-based fuels and additional measures would be needed to meet emission reduction targets in heavy traffic as electric fuels made from green hydrogen and carbon dioxide are currently more expensive to produce than fossil fuels.
