Clemson and New Mexico may seem like an unlikely matchup, but it’s not difficult to make an argument that the 11-seed Lobos are a better team than the 6-seed Tigers. The metrics paint a clear picture: New Mexico is ranked 21st in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin, while Clemson comes in at 35th. While Clemson has a solid defense, New Mexico’s offensive deficiencies might not matter as much against the Tigers’ nationally average defense.
New Mexico’s defense should give Clemson fits on Friday, as they allow the nation’s 30th lowest field goal percentage (45%). Meanwhile, Clemson has faced little in the way of defensive powerhouses this season, with opponents’ defensive efficiency rating outside the top 70. The Lobos have had little difficulty facing tough competition and their rebounding prowess should be more than enough to put away Clemson on Friday.
In contrast, Florida Atlantic and Northwestern appear to be more evenly matched. However, there should be real concern about Northwestern’s strength of schedule this season. Northwestern ranked 355th in non-conference strength of schedule rating; among NCAA Tournament teams, only TCU had an easier out-of-conference schedule in 2023-24. Florida Atlantic will have a distinct advantage on the boards, as they ranked 42nd in the nation in rebounding rate during the regular season, significantly higher than their first-round opponent. Offensive efficiency rating matters (a lot) this time of year and FAU enters the tournament ahead of two top seeds and three top seeds based on their ranking. Their rebounding prowess and offensive firepower should be more than enough to put away Northwestern on Friday.
