The geopolitical resilience of regions around the world is determined by factors such as access to water, energy, rare minerals, and knowledge. These resources play a crucial role in conflicts that are on the rise in places like Ukraine, the Middle East, the South China Sea, and Sudan. Today’s conflicts are influenced by multiple power centers and differing geopolitical interests of global powers like the USA and China, regional powers like Russia, France, and Great Britain, and increasingly local interests.
These conflicts are often fueled by competition over scarce resources like raw materials. Recognizing and understanding these future lines of conflict requires a deep dive into geopolitics and resource scarcity. Water, food, energy, minerals, metals, and knowledge are key dimensions to consider in this analysis. Water has historically been a source of conflict between states along major rivers or pastoralists versus farmers. Local wars over water resources highlight the need for cross-border cooperation and international agreements to prevent existential hardships.
In a larger geopolitical context, it’s evident that water resources are unevenly distributed around the world. Countries like Brazil, Russia
