The South Caucasus region is undergoing a significant shift in its balance of power, with Azerbaijan gaining more independence, Armenia distancing itself from Moscow, and Georgia facing a battle over its geopolitical orientation. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these three countries have been viewed as satellites by Moscow, which sought to maintain control through regional conflicts. However, recent developments have seen Azerbaijan assert its military dominance and forge closer ties with Turkey, while Armenia feels abandoned by Russia.
In the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, military force was used to resolve the issue, reducing Russia’s influence in the region. Azerbaijan now views Russia more as an economic partner, especially in terms of a key transport corridor. On the other hand, Armenia is disillusioned with Russia and faces uncertainty regarding its future security.
In Georgia, debates over the country’s direction are heating up. The ruling party has restricted NGOs and moved towards a more authoritarian model aligned with Russia. However, a majority of Georgians still see their future with the West, posing a challenge for the ruling party in upcoming elections.
As the regional balance of power shifts, Europe must consider its role in supporting democratic forces in Armenia and Georgia and containing Russia’s influence. The South Caucasus presents opportunities for European engagement but concrete action is needed to capitalize on them. Ultimately, the future of this region will be shaped by the choices made by its leaders and external actors.
