In response to global cuts in crude oil production and uncertainty in the market, the Secretariat of Treasury and Public Credit (SHCP) has revised its crude oil extraction forecast for 2024, projecting a decrease of 131 thousand barrels per day. This adjustment is lower than previous estimates outlined in the 2024 Economic Package.
The agency attributes the reduction in forecasts to factors such as global crude oil price trends, production cuts by OPEC and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Mexico, as a member of OPEC, has also implemented production cuts to stabilize the market.
Despite these measures, the Treasury anticipates lower demand for crude oil due to a possible global economic slowdown, particularly in China. As a result, the agency predicts an average price of $71.3 per barrel for the Mexican export mix in 2024, with a decrease to $58.4 per barrel in 2025.
In addition to the revised oil production forecasts, Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned petroleum company, has reported an increase in spending in the first two months of the year compared to the previous year. However, spending in February saw a significant decrease, indicating potential fluctuations in financial performance.
