In Tehran, Iran, an anti-Israel billboard with a picture of Iranian missiles has been spotted on a street. Meanwhile, in Greece, the economy is facing domestic challenges such as demographics, climate change, and a large investment gap with Europe. These challenges are overshadowing its prospects while external geopolitical tensions add uncertainty.
The weak growth of Europe’s major economies, which Greece relies on for investment, exports, and tourism, poses an additional challenge. The government’s forecast for growth of 2.9% this year seems ambitious due to new upward pressures on inflation from increased security uncertainties and the possibility of an escalation of geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East.
Spyridoula Tzima, deputy vice president of the DBRS Morningstar rating agency, notes that an escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to a rise in commodity prices and put upward pressure on prices. This could delay central banks’ decisions on interest rate cuts and require additional fiscal measures. Global challenges such as monetary policy tightening and domestic events like reduced agricultural activity due to severe flooding have already affected economic activity.
Maddalena Martini, a senior economist at Allianz, warns that weak global demand will create new challenges for growth in Greece this year. She expects GDP growth to reach only 1%, as the country has been impacted by a slowdown in its top export markets. However, Oxford Economics economist Paolo Grignani is slightly more optimistic, estimating that growth in Greece could reach 1.7% this year despite weak eurozone growth. Despite these challenges, he believes that the Greek economy’s reliance on domestic demand for growth will help drive positive outcomes.
