Fed Rate Cut Hopes Dampened as 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since November

On Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury note yield increased again, continuing its upward trend from the previous session. Traders reconsidered the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in June as they watched news about manufacturing in the U.S. The benchmark rate rose more than 3 basis points to 4.361%, reaching its highest level since November 28 and briefly breaking above 4.4%. In contrast, the 2-year Treasury note yield decreased nearly 3 basis points to 4.691%.

Yields and prices move in opposite directions, with one basis point equaling 0.01%. This latest movement in Treasury yields followed news that manufacturing in the U.S. expanded for the first time in 17 months. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3, up from 47.8 in February and surpassing the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 48.1. A reading above 50 indicates growth as it measures the percentage of companies reporting expansion against contraction.

Market odds for a June rate cut, as indicated by fed futures trading, have decreased to around 58.8% from about