The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted that the Vietnamese economy will grow by nearly 6% in 2024, primarily due to positive developments in exports and tourism, as well as the implementation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Despite challenges related to high debt levels and a slow recovery in the real estate market, experts at the IMF expect a gradual recovery in the economy from the end of 2023 onwards.
However, risks remain high, particularly in terms of weakening exports, global geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes that could impact Vietnam’s economy. Inflation is forecasted to hover around the State Bank’s target level of 4-4.5% this year, with food prices driving an increase in early 2024. While core inflation remains relatively low and stable, exchange rate pressures could impact domestic inflation further.
The IMF emphasizes the need for financial stability and cautions against excessive credit growth and low-quality investments. Fiscal policy is expected to support economic growth in 2024, with increased public sector wages and efforts to boost public investment. Strengthening fiscal management, improving public spending quality, addressing challenges related to population aging and climate change, and enhancing the social safety net are all critical for long-term sustainability.
Legal reforms in the banking sector and real estate market are also needed to promote stability and growth in these sectors. Addressing challenges related to weak enterprises restructuring is essential for promoting sustainable growth over time.
In conclusion, while Vietnam’s economy is expected to grow by nearly 6% next year due to supportive policies, it faces several risks such as weakening exports and trade disputes that could impact its economic outlook. To ensure long-term sustainability, it is crucial for Vietnam’s government to implement effective fiscal management policies while promoting financial stability through legal reforms in various sectors such as banking and real estate markets.
Despite challenges related to high debt levels and a slow recovery in the real estate market, experts at the IMF expect a gradual recovery in the Vietnamese economy from the end of 2023 onwards. Factors such as disruptions in
