In recent years, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has been marked by a set of unspoken rules established in 1993 that have helped prevent it from escalating into a full-scale war. However, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East has attracted global attention, with recent escalations in violence.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel, resulting in casualties and the taking of hostages. In response, the Israeli army initiated a campaign in the Gaza Strip. Simultaneously, across the border, Lebanese Hezbollah forces engaged in daily skirmishes with the Israeli army following an attack on Israel to show solidarity with Gaza.
As tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border continue to rise, experts believe that a total war is unlikely due to these unwritten rules that have governed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah for nearly three decades. These rules have set boundaries and expectations for both sides to prevent a serious escalation.
The formation of Hezbollah in the early 1980s was in response to Israeli occupation and Western influence in the region. The group has remained armed and considers Israel its archenemy, engaging in periodic conflicts that have been governed by informal agreements between the two sides. Despite periodic flare-ups, these unspoken rules have largely held until Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. The consequences of violating these rules were evident during the 2006 conflict which left casualties on both sides.
Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel are seen as a symbolic show of support for Hamas as they maintain their limited conflict with Israel while avoiding a full-scale war that could have larger implications for their position in the region.
In contrast to this conflict, there is no clear agreement or set of rules governing Israel’s interactions with Hamas. As such, tensions between these two groups are more likely to escalate into full-blown warfare.
