The Met Office has forecast wet weather for the Easter weekend. Despite this, Britain’s slow lane economy is hoping to eke out growth for two months in a row for the first time since September. While this may not seem like much of an accomplishment, it would be seized as a major triumph by Downing Street after the autumn recession.
The consensus forecast among City scribes predicts a 0.1% advance in GDP when the scores on the doors for February are revealed on Friday. This follows the 0.2% mini-boom in January, representing something of a sustained spurt on recent performance. However, anecdotal feedback suggests that consumer spending remains fragile, business cost pressures persist, and external factors like the diversion of shipping away from the Red Sea due to the Houti attacks and relentlessly awful weather continue to impact UK plc.
Simon French, an economist at Panmure Gordon, described the UK’s GDP performance as “a data series of random numbers trending around zero.” JP Morgan boss Jamie Dimon warned shareholders this week that inflation may prove harder to master than the Bank of England currently hopes, potentially delaying and slowing interest rate cuts.
Let’s hope that the City forecasters are right. After all, even slow growth is better than no growth – just.