If President Trump were reelected, it is possible that he may ease chip controls on China in certain cases. However, significant uncertainty would remain regarding the overall sanctions regime. On the other hand, both Trump and Biden share a common suspicion of China. In recent times, President Biden has announced significant tariffs on various Chinese products, which escalated the trade war initiated by his predecessor.
Both Trump and Biden have taken a tough stance against China in terms of technology. The recent chip controls implemented by Biden are likely to remain in place in a second term as any adjustment could be interpreted as a weakness domestically. However, Trump could potentially relax these measures since they were initially imposed by Biden, making it easier for him to do so.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made easing technology sanctions a top priority during discussions with both Trump and Biden. Trump, known for his dealmaking skills, may leverage this situation to negotiate Chinese concessions in return for relaxed chip exports. However, American companies affected by the controls and U.S allies like the Netherlands and Japan play a crucial role in determining the efficacy of any future strategy towards China.
In conclusion, regardless of the election outcome, the US is likely to maintain its tough stance on China particularly in the realm of technology. While Trump may seek deals with Xi, the core strategy of limiting China’s access to cutting-edge chip technology is expected to persist due to bipartisan support and domestic political consensus.
