With Nepal’s recent defeat to South Africa, only one Super Eight spot remains open in Group D of the T20 World Cup 2024. Bangladesh has emerged as a stronger contender for the playoffs, leaving the Netherlands facing a tougher challenge ahead. With five games left in the league stage, the competition for the final Super Eight spot is heating up.
After Nepal and Sri Lanka were eliminated from contention, Bangladesh has been able to secure a significant advantage over the Netherlands with a Net Run Rate of 0.478 compared to the Netherlands’ -0.408. This means that if Bangladesh loses to Nepal by 38 runs and the Netherlands defeat Sri Lanka by at least 15 runs in their upcoming matches, Bangladesh will secure their spot in the Super Eight. However, if Bangladesh wins against Nepal and loses to Sri Lanka, or if they lose to both teams, they could still be eliminated based on net run rates.
On the other hand, for the Netherlands to qualify for the Super Eight, their combined margins in both matches must be at least 53 runs if they batting first score 140 runs or more. This means that if Bangladesh defeats Nepal by 38 runs and Sri Lanka defeats them by an even smaller margin than that of Nepal’s victory over Sri Lanka (which was only six runs), then Bangladesh would advance instead of the Netherlands.
The recent update following Australia’s win over Scotland has confirmed England’s qualification alongside Australia as Group B toppers. S Rajesh, who is an expert stats editor at ESPNcricinfo has provided this analysis and we can expect more updates as T20 World Cup action continues.
