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Americans expect the annual increase in prices to return to close to prepandemic levels, with top executives forecasting an average of 3.4% inflation using the consumer-price index in the next 12 months, according to a four-times-a-year survey by the Cleveland Federal Reserve. However, the rate of inflation in the 12 months that ended in December was already at 3.4%, and it’s expected to drop to 2.9% in the January report, due out Tuesday morning. A better measure of future inflation, however, was somewhat higher. The core CPI, which omits food and energy, stood at a 12-month rate of 3.9% at the end of 2023.

A long-running survey of consumers also found that Americans expect inflation to continue to decelerate toward prepandemic levels. Households expect 2.9% inflation in the next year, the consumer sentiment survey found. What both of these surveys show is that inflation expectations are what the Federal Reserve likes to refer to as “well anchored.” In other words, nobody expects inflation to move up or down much from current levels.

The Fed wants inflation to return

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