‘Good news:’ Our state’s economy ‘hasn’t gotten worse,’ says NC State economist

RALEIGH – North Carolina’s economy may possibly not be having any far better – but it is also not having worse which is “good news” to N.C. State economist Dr. Mike Walden.

Citing his month-to-month NCSU Index of Major Financial Indicators, Walden says the most up-to-date information (April) “was unchanged from its preceding reading. I take into account this great news.  It implies what ever sort of financial slowdown North Carolina will have in the coming months, the most up-to-date info suggests it hasn’t gotten worse.  The glass may possibly have moved above half-complete!”

For instance, North Carolina’s unemployment price ticked downward in April to three.four% in April, according to federal information.

NCSU Index graphic

On the other hand, not all the indicators are optimistic.

“[T] he poor news is 3 of the 5 elements of the Index showed deterioration. The national index, creating permits, and manufacturing earnings all fell,” Walden says.

“However, there was a single decline that was a vibrant spot – initial claims for unemployment fell more than 7% from March.”

Typical manufacturing hours also “eked out a tiny .1% obtain,” he noted.

NCSU Index graphic

Walden’s take on all the information:

“What do these numbers inform us? With no reversal in the decline the Index has seasoned more than the final year, the implication is the North Carolina economy will continue to slow. But with no adjust in the Index, the message is the degree of slowing will not worsen.

“With so a great deal uncertainty and be concerned at present present, the conclusion of  ‘it may possibly not be as poor as we when thought’ could be deemed uplifting! My mother when told me, ‘Don’t dismiss tiny favors.’”

About the Index: The Index is composed of 5 elements: the Financial Cycle Study Institute (ECRI)’s Weekly Major Index (http://www.businesscycle.com/sources/), North Carolina initial claims for unemployment rewards, North Carolina creating permits, typical weekly hours of perform of all North Carolina workers in manufacturing, and typical weekly earnings of all North Carolina workers in manufacturing. All information are seasonally-adjusted and modified for variations in costs levels exactly where suitable. Information are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and ECRI, whose permission to use their Weekly Major Index is considerably appreciated. All calculations are performed by Dr. Michael Walden, and comments can be sent to michael_walden@ncsu.edu.