Global trade is on track for a positive first half of 2024, with goods trade increasing by 1% in the first quarter and services trade growing by 1.5% on an annual basis. This growth has been driven by developing countries such as China, India, and the United States, while Europe and Africa did not experience any growth in exports. However, despite these positive trends, global trade may not reach the record level set in 2022.
UNCTAD’s latest monthly review predicts a 2% growth in world trade for the first half of 2024. The organization highlights that global trade related to green energy sectors and artificial intelligence products is in high demand compared to other sectors. Despite potential challenges such as geopolitical issues and industrial policies reshaping trade patterns, UNCTAD remains optimistic about global trade in 2024.
Inflation has remained positive but below 2% in the first half of 2024, indicating improving economic growth prospects. However, ongoing negative developments such as geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could pose risks to global trade. Additionally, there may be a possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States later in the year, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting global trade.
Overall, while the outlook for global trade in 2024 is promising, it remains vulnerable to various external factors that could impact its progression throughout the year.
