In the latest development, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has released its preliminary estimates for county employment in 2023 through its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. The program relies on employer reporting to state unemployment insurance agencies to calculate employment, establishments and wages paid by industry, state and county. This data is often used to evaluate Montgomery County’s economy compared to its competitors.
To simplify the analysis, this year’s article will focus on three key questions in ascending order of importance: How did we do last year? How are we doing compared to the pre-pandemic era? What’s the long-term trend? These questions will be applied to four specific data series measured by the QCEW program: total employment, private employment, establishments, and wages paid.
It is important to note that the data sourced from employers only applies to their payrolls, and does not measure non-employment income or non-payroll work such as self-employment. This omission is significant since Montgomery County is a leader in the D.C. region in proprietors and proprietor income. Data on these subjects is released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis with a lag and will be revisited in future articles.
Additionally, it should be noted that the preliminary estimates provided by the QCEW program are subject to revision. While revisions have not historically been substantial and have not reversed long-term trends, this article will regularly incorporate revised numbers into its analysis.
In Part Two of this series, we will further explore Montgomery County’s economic performance compared to its neighbors including one jurisdiction that has experienced a notable economic downturn.
Overall, this article aims to delve deeper into the economic data provided by the QCEW program while taking into consideration the limitations and revisions of