The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which is designed to provide insight into the direction of the economy, fell in October. According to The Conference Board, this suggests that a recession may be on the horizon. However, despite decreasing for 19 months without a recession occurring, many economists have been adjusting their forecasts. Earlier this year, The Conference Board had predicted a recession by now.
One reason why we are not currently in a recession is because consumer spending has remained much stronger than expected, according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board. While she still predicts a recession early next year, she believes it will be short if it happens at all. This is because data shows that there hasn’t been a dramatic decline in manufacturing or in the housing market.
U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month, but he expects unemployment to increase and labor conditions to begin to soften. He now believes a soft landing is more likely and is willing to update his forecasts if economic data continues to surprise him.
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