As tensions rise on Israel’s northern border, concerns about the safety of the country’s critical infrastructure are on high alert. Among them are the gas rigs, which Hezbollah is expected to target with rockets, missiles, and UAVs. Unlike other vital infrastructures, the shutdown of these rigs could have devastating consequences not only for Israel but also for Egypt.
Since 2020, Egypt has been heavily reliant on Israeli gas imports, with last year importing 8.6 billion cubic meters (BCM) of Israeli gas while consuming 13.1 BCM domestically. The remaining balance of 2.9 BCM goes to Jordan. However, Egypt is facing a severe shortage of electricity due to a six-year low in its natural gas production in 2023. Dr. Amit Mor explains that the decline in production is due to poor activity in Egypt’s natural gas field and the depletion of proven reserves in the Zohar natural gas field, which accounts for half of Egypt’s total reserves.
The project experts discovered that the gas produced from this field was saturated with sulfur and corrosive substances that damaged production infrastructure and made it difficult to extract water from rock layers quickly. In fact, according to Mor, about 15% of Egypt’s local consumption comes from Israel, and an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would likely result in a complete cessation of gas production from Israeli fields altogether. This decision would be made to protect the rigs and their workers from being hit by Hezbollah missiles while prioritizing domestic energy needs over exports to Europe as well as other countries worldwide through liquefaction facilities.
In addition to this issue related to liquidified natural gas (LNG), which is a critical source of income for Cairo and accounts for about 70% of its exports revenue in 2022 despite a severe shortage domestically, there is no denying that an all-out war would have devastating consequences for both countries involved.
Therefore it is imperative for both sides to find peaceful solutions through diplomacy or any other means necessary before it’s too late.
In conclusion, tensions on Israel’s northern border are increasing with fears that Hezbollah may target strategic infrastructure such as gas rigs with rockets or UAV attacks. While this may harm Israel directly; it could also cause irreparable damage to Egypt’s critical infrastructure such as electricity supply via natural gas imports and LNG exports revenue streams.
It is crucial for both countries involved to exercise caution and diplomacy before any actions escalate further into a full-blown conflict that could lead to catastrophic consequences for all parties involved.