In October, the leading economic index fell 0.8% for the 19th month in a row, despite economists forecasting a drop of only 0.7%. The U.S. economy seems to be holding steady, but concerns about an impending recession remain high. Despite this, the U.S. grew at a sharp 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise a key short-term interest rate to combat inflation may slow down the economy and even trigger a recession if borrowing costs continue to rise.
Looking ahead, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates and contracting consumer spending due to depleting pandemic savings and mandatory student loan repayments to tip the U.S economy into a very short recession. Meanwhile, market reaction was positive as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and S&P 500 SPX rose in Monday trading