On Thursday, official figures confirmed that Britain’s economy had entered a recession in the latter half of 2023. The Office for National Statistics reported that gross domestic product declined by 0.1% in the third quarter and 0.3% in the fourth quarter, which matched preliminary estimates previously reported. Despite some improvement at the beginning of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.2% in January and continued growth reported in February and March according to unofficial surveys, the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been slow. Currently, Britain’s economy is only 1% larger than it was in late 2019, with Germany being the only G7 nation with a worse performance.
The Bank of England has indicated that British inflation is nearing a level where they can begin reducing interest rates. The Bank expects the economy to grow by just 0.25% this year, while official budget forecasters are more optimistic, expecting a 0.8% expansion in the economy. Following the release of this data, the value of sterling against both the U.S. dollar and euro remained relatively stable.