In March, Argentina’s economic activity index is projected to have decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Tuesday. This marks the deepest drop since 2020 and the fifth consecutive monthly contraction. Analysts in the survey estimated a 7.2% decline in the index from February. The year-on-year contraction estimates varied from 4% to 10.3%.
Pablo Besmedrisnik, an economist and director of Invenomica consulting firm, highlighted that the decline in sectors related to domestic consumption, industry, and construction is solidifying and intensifying. However, sectors like mining and agriculture are experiencing growth. The industrial production indicator for Argentina showed a 21.2% slowdown year-on-year in March, according to government data.
Economists are approaching the forecast for the first and second halves of the year cautiously, anticipating a gradual recovery. Federico Gonzalez Rouco, an economist at Empiria Consultores, stated, “We don’t see a rapid recovery in activity for the first half of the year. We believe that inflation is slowing down, but it is also facing risks associated with the foreign exchange market.” The official figures are expected to be published by Argentina’s statistics agency INDEC on Wednesday.
