American Concerns About Economy on the Rise as Experts Debate Recession Possibility

A recent Guardian/Harris poll showed that 56% of Americans believe that the U.S. is already in a recession, despite the belief of some economists that the country may avoid one this year. This suggests that there is a growing concern among Americans about the state of the economy, despite optimism from some experts.

However, not all economists agree on whether the U.S. consumer will slow down or continue spending in the upcoming summer months. New data reveals that households have taken on a record amount of debt, leading to an increase in consumers being delinquent on their credit card bills. Some analysts predict that this could lead to an economic downturn in the near future, as high levels of debt can strain consumer finances and lead to reduced spending power.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) maintains that while economic growth may slow down, consumers are still willing to spend. Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz of the NRF suggests that U.S. economic growth for the rest of the year will be influenced by factors such as job growth, inflation, and decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Despite concerns about increasing debt and delinquencies, underlying momentum is being supported by consumer spending.

However, not all economists agree with this outlook. Peter Earle, an economist for the American Institute for Economic Research, warns of the possibility of stagflation, with higher unemployment and inflation rates. He points to factors like increasing credit card debt and a higher prevalence of part-time jobs as indicators that the economy may not perform as well as expected.

In conclusion, while there are differing opinions among economists about whether we are already in a recession or if we will experience one soon, it’s clear that consumer spending is playing a crucial role in shaping our economic outlook for 2023 and beyond. As debt levels continue to rise and interest rates remain low, it’s important for policymakers to take action to address these challenges and support sustainable economic growth for all Americans.